Six weeks after hitting an all-time high near $65,000, bitcoin has more than halved in price, baffling many crypto investors. However, this was also the case in the past, after the bull market ended in 2017. Now the fundamental picture looks much better, and the return of “crypto-Zima” is not actively discussed in the community. Nevertheless, most likely, we will have to be patient.
The market has gone far ahead in its expectations of cryptocurrencies’ active penetration in our life, and the technical picture signals about possible consolidation during a month or two before more confident attempts to return to the growth trajectory. It needs to consolidate above $42k, which won’t be easy, and the option of moving back to $30k for residual sales will cause much less resistance.
What went wrong
The reasons for the April-May correction lie not only in Musk’s “betrayal” – his cooling to bitcoin has cast a shadow over the prospects of the first cryptocurrency by other corporations and its mass adoption as a payment option. Before the Tesla executive’s tweets, market participants were upset by comments from the new head of the SEC, Gary Gensler, which could be interpreted as not in favor of approving the ETF this year.
Even earlier, U.S. President Joe Biden announced plans to raise taxes on the wealthy. This all occurred in the context of an IRS campaign to identify defaulters.
The combination of these factors could be a trigger for profit-taking, as retail investors for new momentum still need to wait, and current gains could be lost.
Such a dramatic development, which took place on May 19, is a consequence of speculators’ greed for leverage. Bitcoin is still a volatile instrument (big profits have a high price). Those who bought on the growth wave in October had too much faith in the “native”. There is always room for correction in the market. Its duration now depends on regulators. They are unlikely to give up the pleasure of maintaining the current pressure.
Traditional markets, on the other hand, have bubbled up. A jump in inflation could knock them out of the saddle, and cryptocurrencies on this background can already be perceived as an alternative in the context of the yield/risk ratio.